The figures, cited ahead of the release, indicate that approximately $300 million of the gap traces directly to shifts in Washington — including reductions in federal reimbursements and policy changes affecting health and social service funding. The remaining shortfall predates the current administration's moves and reflects the city's ongoing structural imbalance between revenue and spending.

The scope of the federal exposure matters for how Lurie's team frames cuts and tradeoffs. Departments that rely heavily on federal pass-through dollars — the Department of Public Health, the Human Services Agency, and MOHCD among them — face a different kind of pressure than agencies whose deficits are locally driven. Budget analysts have warned for months that the city's contingency planning for federal funding loss has lagged the actual pace of policy changes.

Lurie's office has not yet detailed which departments face the deepest reductions or whether the budget will propose new revenue. The Mayor's budget is the opening bid in a process that runs through the summer — the Board of Supervisors has until August 1 to pass a final spending plan.

Watch for: the full budget release next week, followed by department-by-department hearings at the Budget and Appropriations Committee. The Controller's office is expected to release its own five-year projection in parallel. Supervisor response to how the administration allocates federal-risk exposure across departments will be the first real test of Lurie's relationship with the board.