I'll tell you up front where I sit on soccer: I'm the guy on the stool at the end of the bar who's seen a thousand matches and still won't pretend he's sharper than the market on a Premier League midweek. World Cup group openers, though, have a shape you can feel, and this one — England vs. Croatia, Group L, 4 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington — has the shape of a game where nobody wants to be the one who lost first.

Start with England under Thomas Tuchel. Eight qualifiers, eight wins, 22 scored, zero conceded — gaudy until you remember who they beat. What actually carries into a tournament is the style: 70%-plus possession, full-backs inverting into a 3-2-5, Declan Rice pushed up and Kane dropping to knit it together. That is a ball-control team, not a track meet. They suffocate you and win 1-0 and 2-0. Beautiful if you like chess, death for an Over.

Now Croatia. The romantic in me could write 800 words on Luka Modric at 40 — fifth World Cup, 196 caps, a fractured cheekbone in April that didn't stop him, now parked at the No. 10 so he conducts instead of runs. But the bettor in me reads what that means: a side that no longer presses high, sits in a compact mid-to-low block, and tries to win the game in 20 controlled minutes rather than 90 frantic ones. Gvardiol anchors a rebuilt back line. The striker spot is unsettled — there's no one up top forcing a shootout. Croatia would take a 0-0 or a 1-1 against the group favorite and call it a good night's work.

Put England's patience against Croatia's compactness in a tournament opener — the most cautious 90 minutes on any team's calendar — and you get a cagey, low-event game. The qualifying goals were against minnows who opened up; Croatia will do the opposite.

The bet: 0.5u— make it 1u on Under 2.5 goals, -128 (BetRivers; also at BetOnline and LowVig).

The number's honest. Most books have the Under 2.5 between -128 and -135; BetRivers' -128 is the best of it. I'm not claiming a market-beating edge here — I'm claiming the price still pays for a read I'd make even if it were even money: this is a 0,1, or 2-goal game more often than not. A 1-0 England, a 2-0 England, a 1-1 draw all cash. It only dies if England crack three or it opens into a 2-1, and I don't see Croatia trading punches when a point keeps them alive.

If it loses, it loses because England's front line is just better than Croatia's tired legs and someone like Bellingham turns a 1-0 into a 3-0 late. That's the live way to get burned and I'm naming it now, because that's the deal — every number I put down goes on the record, and I eat the ones that miss.

Line pulled live this morning. 1u, Under 2.5, -128.

Sal is 7-2 (+4.5u YTD).

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