New polling shows state Sen. Scott Wiener commanding a dominant lead among likely primary voters across nearly every demographic group in San Francisco. Meanwhile, Supervisor Connie Chan and former software engineer Saikat Chakrabarti — the man who helped build AOC's political brand — are locked in a tie for a distant second.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Chakrabarti, who has poured millions of his own dollars into this race, is currently polling even with a supervisor who hasn't come close to matching his spending. As one SF resident put it, "It's hilarious to me that Chakrabarti has spent millions of dollars of his own money to be tied with… Chan." That's not a campaign — that's a very expensive hobby.

Wiener's lead isn't particularly surprising if you've been paying attention. Love him or hate him, he's built a legislative record in Sacramento that gives him something most candidates in this race lack: actual name recognition paired with tangible policy work. He's authored consequential bills on housing, transit, and public safety. You don't have to agree with all of them to acknowledge the man has been doing the job.

Chakrabarti's pitch was always that Silicon Valley money and progressive celebrity connections could buy a congressional seat in San Francisco. Turns out voters here are a little more discerning than that — or at least discerning enough to want a candidate who's actually governed something before asking to govern on their behalf.

The real fiscal conservative takeaway? Chakrabarti's campaign is a perfect microcosm of a philosophy we see too often in government: throw enormous sums of money at a problem and assume results will follow. Spoiler — they usually don't.

This race isn't over, but the trajectory is clear. Wiener is the prohibitive favorite, and unless something dramatic shifts, the only real suspense left is whether Chakrabarti or Chan earns the consolation prize of second place. Given the spending disparity, second place would actually be a win for Chan and a brutal indictment of Chakrabarti's entire theory of the case.

Sometimes money talks. Sometimes it just whispers into the void.