A Santa Clara County civil grand jury has declared that the Valley Transportation Authority has no credible plan to manage the financial risks on its nearly $13 billion BART extension to San Jose — and that the agency has been ignoring the same institutional warnings for at least seven years.

The grand jury's report, released June 17, lands at a precarious moment: VTA is about to submit its final application for $5.1 billion in federal funding — nearly half the project's cost — while facing a $700 million to $1.2 billion funding gap it hasn't closed and a cost trajectory that has nearly tripled since the project was first approved. For Bay Area riders, transit advocates, and taxpayers who are simultaneously being asked to pass a regional transit sales tax in November, the report raises a fundamental question: can VTA actually manage what would be the most expensive transit project in the region's history?

In 2019, a Santa Clara County civil grand jury called VTA one of the "most expensive and least efficient transit systems in the country" and recommended the agency overhaul its governance structure. VTA resisted. Seven years later, a new grand jury has released a report that reads like a sequel nobody wanted.

"The VTA Board has failed in its responsibility to provide effective management, oversight and financial control of the BSVII Project," the 2026 report states, using the shorthand for BART to Silicon Valley, Phase 2 — the 6-mile, four-station extension that would run from the existing Berryessa Transit Center in North San Jose, through downtown, and on to Santa Clara.

The numbers behind that finding are stark. When the project was originally scoped in 2014, it was expected to cost $4.7 billion and open in 2026. The current estimate is $12.75 billion, with a projected opening in 2037. That's a cost increase of nearly 170 percent over 12 years, and an 11-year delay on a rail line that hasn't yet broken ground on its most complex segments.

The federal funding squeeze

VTA is now preparing its final application for a $5.1 billion federal grant — money that would cover roughly 40 percent of the project's current estimate. But the agency has not updated its official cost projections since 2024, and the grand jury found "no realistic plan to deal with foreseeable financial risks," including a $700 million to $1.2 billion gap that emerged after the Federal Transit Administration's offer came in below what VTA had requested.

The timing is acutely awkward. Federal infrastructure funding has grown more unpredictable under the current administration, and in April, California tapped into a pool of capital project funds — money that would otherwise be directed to large transit investments like the BART extension — to provide a $590 million emergency bailout to Caltrain, Muni, AC Transit, and BART. State Sen. Dave Cortese raised concerns about that move, citing its potential to put the Silicon Valley extension's financing at further risk.

A cautionary tale already in service

The grand jury also pointed to Phase 1 — the Milpitas and Berryessa stations that opened in 2020 — as a warning sign. Those two stations have lost an average of $69 million annually over their first five years of operation. January 2026 ridership was 86 percent below what had originally been projected.

That performance, the grand jury noted, is a foreseeable financial headwind for Phase 2: weak ridership reduces the revenue argument for completing the extension, even as construction costs continue to mount.

"We take this seriously"

Campbell City Councilmember Sergio Lopez, who chairs VTA's Board of Directors, said the agency takes the grand jury's findings "seriously" and is "committed" to improving transparency and accountability, according to the Mercury News. The grand jury requires VTA to formally respond to its recommendations within a set window.

But the 2019 experience gives reason for skepticism. That year's grand jury specifically recommended VTA reform its board structure — a body where members are appointed from local city councils with staggered two-year terms, creating constant turnover. The agency resisted, and the 2026 grand jury found the same dynamic still driving weak oversight seven years later.

The broader stakes are regional. Bay Area voters are being asked in November to pass a 0.5 percent regional sales tax that would raise roughly $1 billion annually for transit across five counties — a measure designed partly to stabilize the very agencies that would need to function alongside a completed BART extension. If VTA can't demonstrate financial credibility, it may undercut the case for that tax right when transit advocates need it most.