The second half is underway in Santa Clara. Let me catch you up on the first 45, because a few things happened that are going to define this game.

The goal. Folarin Balogun, No. 20, opened the scoring and you could feel what that meant at Levi's even from here. Balogun is the guy the national team argument has been about for three years — born in Brooklyn, raised in London, chose the U.S. flag when he could have worn the Three Lions. Every time he touches the ball in this tournament, that decision is re-litigated. Tonight he made it very easy to stop arguing.

The numbers. USA had 62% possession through the half, five shots, one on target. Bosnia had one shot, one on target — and that single look on goal is the thing to hold in your mind. The Americans controlled the ball the way you'd expect against a third-place group finisher, but they didn't exactly bury the opponent in chances. One goal, one shot on target for each side. The margin is not as comfortable as it looks.

The Dzeko problem. This is the story inside the story. Edin Dzeko — 39 years old, Bosnia's all-time leading scorer, the symbol of a country that qualified for this tournament by being the last team standing in UEFA playoffs, the team that beat Italy on penalties — was forced off early in the second half with what appeared to be a knock. He left the pitch under his own power but clearly done. The broadcast noted, quietly, that this could be the end of his international career.

I don't care what kit you root for. That's a hard thing to watch. The guy has been carrying Bosnia's attack across club careers at Roma, Inter, Fenerbahçe, and everywhere else, and now he goes out like that. Dzeko without the ball is Bosnia's most dangerous player even at 39 — his movement, his ability to hold the line, the way defenders have to account for him. Without him, whatever Bosnia had tactically just got substantially simpler for Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie to hold.

The worry. The U.S. dropped a 2-0 lead against Turkey in the group stage and lost 3-2 on a goal in the final seconds. That game shouldn't have mattered for group advancement, and it didn't. But the memory of it is exactly the noise that fills a crowd in the 75th minute when Bosnia gets a corner and the U.S. defense starts playing pinball in its own box. The corner stats at half: USA 3, Bosnia 2. They will test Matt Freese at some point. He's been clean in this tournament but he hasn't been tested yet tonight.

The path. Win tonight, and the U.S. faces either Belgium or Senegal — which means Belgium, probably; Senegal is currently through after AET in a match that will have legs tired from extra time. Belgium is a big test. But that's a problem for next week. Tonight's problem is 45 minutes of a 1-0 game in front of the loudest crowd on the schedule, and a Bosnian side that still has plenty of quality even without Dzeko.

Forty-five minutes. Hold the line, get a second goal if it's there, and the Bay Area gets to host a second World Cup knockout match. The city waited 32 years for this one. Probably shouldn't waste it.

— Sal // analysis only, no bet on a live in-game line