San Francisco loves to talk about its comeback. Mayor Breed talked about it. Mayor Lurie talks about it. Every tourism press release practically pops champagne. But zoom in past the citywide averages and the picture gets a lot less festive.

The numbers tell a brutal story: neighborhoods like Bayview/Hunter's Point and the Tenderloin have seen sales tax revenue crater roughly 57% compared to 2019. SoMa isn't far behind at around 47%. These aren't rounding errors — these are neighborhoods that have effectively lost half their commercial economic activity in six years and show few signs of snapping back.

Meanwhile, other parts of the city are humming along just fine. The disconnect is jarring but not surprising. The neighborhoods getting hammered share a common profile: heavy dependence on office workers or foot traffic that evaporated during COVID and never fully returned, compounded by persistent public safety concerns that keep new businesses from backfilling vacant storefronts.

One longtime SF resident put it bluntly: during the 2010s boom, the city "didn't build enough housing" and let itself become dangerously dependent on tech-driven tax revenue. "Tech workers were the first to leave in 2020, and took all the tax revenue and spending with them." That's what happens when you treat a single industry's spillover as a permanent economic plan.

And then there's the West Side paradox. Sales tax data shows declines in places like the Sunset and the Richmond, but as one local pointed out, "the traffic alone plus all the new businesses opening up on both sides of the park tell a different story." Sometimes the metrics lag reality — or miss it entirely. That's worth noting before anyone at City Hall uses these numbers to justify another round of subsidies.

Speaking of City Hall, some supervisors are catching heat for presiding over sluggish districts while newer board members seem more aggressive about filling vacant retail. One resident called out supervisors Connie Chan and Rafael Mandelman specifically, noting they "seem much more comfortable with vacant retail in their districts than some of the newer supervisors."

Here's the uncomfortable truth: an uneven recovery isn't an accident. It's the predictable result of policies that made it expensive and bureaucratically painful to open businesses, build housing, and adapt to a post-pandemic economy. The neighborhoods still underwater are the ones where city government either over-regulated, under-delivered on safety, or both.

SF doesn't need another task force or another round of "economic recovery" branding. It needs permit reform, consistent public safety, and supervisors who treat empty storefronts like the emergencies they are — not acceptable background noise.