Here's a snapshot of San Francisco's housing market in 2025: a 27-year-old making $160,000 a year — well into the top 10% nationally — is agonizing over whether they can afford to move from one small apartment to a slightly different small apartment. Welcome to the city that government built.

The math tells the story. A young professional pulling in $96K after California's legendary tax bite is weighing a jump from $2,750/month in Glen Park to $3,250/month in Hayes Valley. That's roughly 40% of take-home pay on housing alone, for a 500-square-foot box. And the kicker? They're worried prices could jump to $4,500–$9,000 in two years, so this feels like a deal.

As one local put it: "3250 for a big-enough rent controlled apt with parking in Hayes is amazing. Take it and don't look back." When the collective wisdom of San Franciscans is that $39,000 a year for a one-bedroom is a steal, something has gone structurally, profoundly wrong.

Let's be clear about what's driving this. San Francisco has spent decades strangling its own housing supply through labyrinthine permitting, NIMBY-captured planning commissions, and endless environmental review for buildings that would house actual humans. Then it slapped on rent control — which, yes, helps the lucky few who snag a unit, but systematically discourages new construction and shrinks the overall supply. Economists across the political spectrum agree on this. The city just doesn't care.

The result is a system where high earners scramble for rent-controlled units like it's a game of musical chairs, pushing everyone else further out. The person who used to pay $1,200 for a room three years ago now needs six figures just to tread water solo. Meanwhile, the barista, the teacher, and the small business employee? They left.

The smart individual move here is obvious — lock in rent control if you can find it. But the smart policy move is the one San Francisco refuses to make: build dramatically more housing and stop treating every new unit like an environmental catastrophe. Until City Hall gets serious about supply, six-figure earners will keep sweating $3,250 apartments, and everyone else will keep leaving.

Fiscal responsibility starts with acknowledging that your regulations created the crisis. San Francisco hasn't gotten there yet.