The figures reflect how sharply the market has shifted since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022. Oakland's decline puts it among the harder-hit markets nationally. San Francisco's drop is comparatively smaller but still represents a meaningful correction in a market where median single-family prices have historically exceeded $1 million.

The data covers single-family homes specifically and does not capture the condo market, which has tracked differently in San Francisco — condos have faced additional headwinds from remote work patterns and a slower downtown recovery.

For buyers who have been priced out through the pandemic run-up, the declines are meaningful on paper. For owners who purchased at or near peak with low-rate financing, the equity erosion is real but monthly carrying costs remain fixed. The calculus shifts considerably for anyone who bought at peak with adjustable-rate financing.

Neither the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development nor the Planning Department has issued updated affordability projections reflecting the current price environment. MOHCD's most recent Area Median Income-based loan limits have not been revised downward to match market movement.

Watch for: The Controller's Office releases its annual housing affordability report later this year, which will incorporate updated sales data. The Board of Supervisors' Land Use and Transportation Committee has several density and inclusionary rate proposals pending that were written against a higher baseline price environment — those assumptions may come under scrutiny.