The Dodgers are a public team, always heavily favored, especially at home against the Colorado Rockies. But tonight, the books are giving us an edge with the Rockies +1.5. And it's all thanks to Roki Sasaki.

Sasaki, the Dodgers starter, has been in a serious slump, rocking a 10.06 ERA over his last four starts. That's not just bad, that's "get lit up like a Christmas tree" bad. He's given up 19 earned runs in his last 17 innings. Meanwhile, the Rockies are throwing Gabriel Hughes out for his first MLB start. Yeah, it's a debut, and that can be volatile, but the kid looked good in relief, and more importantly, the Rockies bullpen has been lights out, with 22.1 consecutive scoreless innings. If Hughes can hand it over around the fifth or sixth, that 'pen can shut it down.

The Dodgers, despite their overall record, are 5-10 against the spread in games Sasaki starts. They might win, but they rarely cover when he's on the mound. The public loves to back the Dodgers, but this is a spot where the value is on the underdog. The Rockies already took Game 1 of this series, proving they can hang. I'm taking the runs.

Sal is 16-15 (+1.1u YTD).

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