Yesterday I had one play on the board. The San Francisco Giants hosting the Colorado Rockies, moneyline at -123 on DraftKings, half a unit.

Final record for the window: 0-1, -0.5 units.

The reasoning was simple enough. Giants at home, Rockies on the road — Colorado's road numbers have been rough all year, and San Francisco's home record gave them a legible edge. Laying -123 for a mid-tier favorite against one of the worse road clubs in the league is not a wild ask. That's the whole argument.

What was right about it: the structural setup was sound. You don't need a complex read to back a bad road team against a decent home team in a division game. The logic holds on paper.

What was wrong: the Giants lost the game. That's it. There's no mechanical error to point at — the price was fair, the side was reasonable — they just didn't win. Sometimes the favorite loses. Laying juice only makes sense if the wins come, and yesterday the win didn't come.

Half a unit is half a unit. It's a small number, and I'm not going to dress it up as a near-miss or a bad-beat story. The Giants had every opportunity and came up short at home. That's on me for putting them in the ledger.

No explanations the box score doesn't support. No rationalizing the price. One bet, wrong result, down half a unit.