The emerging Democratic primary is shaping up as a contest between familiar brands of Sacramento progressivism, with billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer working to distinguish himself from former Attorney General and current frontrunner Xavier Becerra. Meanwhile, State Senator Scott Wiener — who has built a national profile around AI safety legislation — is eyeing a congressional seat, with a tech-forward platform that could take his regulatory ambitions to Washington.

Let's talk about the Steyer-Becerra dynamic first. Both are Democrats. Both are career establishment figures. But Steyer is clearly trying to position himself as the outsider-ish alternative — the self-funded billionaire who doesn't owe Sacramento's entrenched interests any favors. Becerra, meanwhile, brings the institutional résumé: state AG, HHS Secretary under Biden, the works. The question for primary voters will be whether they want continuity or a slightly different flavor of the same governing philosophy.

From a fiscal perspective, neither candidate inspires much confidence that California's budget dysfunction — a projected deficit that has ballooned under one-party rule — will be seriously addressed. Steyer's brand is green energy investment, which in practice has meant massive public subsidies. Becerra's track record is heavy on regulation and enforcement, light on spending discipline. Pick your poison.

Then there's Wiener, whose AI safety bills in Sacramento have earned him both praise and criticism from the tech sector. Taking that framework federal is an interesting play, but anyone who's watched his legislative approach in Sacramento knows he favors government-first solutions to complex technological questions. The tech industry should pay attention — and probably hire more lobbyists.

What California actually needs in its next governor is someone willing to confront the state's cost-of-living crisis, its crumbling fiscal position, and the regulatory labyrinth that drives businesses to Texas and Florida. Whether any of these candidates will deliver that kind of leadership remains, to put it charitably, an open question.

The primary is still a long way off, but the lanes are forming. Don't hold your breath for a fiscal conservative to crash the party.