Here's a number that should make every San Francisco politician lose sleep: $24 billion in adjusted gross income left the Bay Area between 2022 and 2023. That's not a typo. That's billion, with a B.
New analysis of IRS and Census data paints a brutal picture of postpandemic migration — and it's not just warm bodies leaving. It's wallets. Big ones. San Francisco County alone shed $2.08 billion in adjusted gross income from the net out-migration of just 913 people. Do the math: those leaving SF earned roughly $56,000 more on average than those moving in. The city isn't just losing residents — it's trading high earners for lower earners, which is a fiscal disaster in slow motion.
Nationally, Florida and Texas were the biggest winners. Zero state income tax will do that. Meanwhile, California continues to act shocked — shocked — that people with means and mobility are choosing to keep more of their money.
As one local put it bluntly: "The city is broke. Crime was getting worse until recently. Special taxes are rampant. City services suck." It's hard to argue with any of that. When you're paying top dollar in taxes and getting bottom-tier services in return, the rational move is to leave. And that's exactly what high earners are doing.
Some optimists point to the AI boom as a potential savior, but even that comes with asterisks. As one Bay Area resident noted, "I don't think people were under the impression a sustained AI boom would be great for the Bay Area middle class." And another raised the uncomfortable question: "What happens when the ROI on AI and data center spend ends up greatly disappointing?"
This is the fundamental problem with San Francisco's governance model: it's built on the assumption that wealthy taxpayers will always be here, always be willing to subsidize an ever-expanding bureaucracy, and never do the simple calculation of what their dollar buys them elsewhere. That assumption is now provably wrong to the tune of $24 billion.
You can't tax your way to prosperity, and you certainly can't spend your way there when the people footing the bill are packing U-Hauls for Austin. Until City Hall learns to deliver basic competence — safe streets, clean sidewalks, functional services — at a price that doesn't feel like extortion, the exodus will continue. The money doesn't care about your vibes. It follows value.
